Paul Caron of the TaxProfBlog reports some higher ed bubble news with roots in recent history.

Organ: Will 10% of Law Schools Close by 2019, Just as 10% of Dental Schools Closed 25 Years Ago?

Following up on my previous post, Will Top Tier Law Schools be the First to Close, Like Emory and Georgetown Dental Schools?:  The Legal Whiteboard:  What Law Schools Can Learn from Dental Schools in the 1980s Regarding the Consequences of a Decline in Applicants, by Jerry Organ (St. Thomas):

Although there may be a number of people in the legal academy who continue to believe that somehow legal education is “exceptional” – that market forces may impose financial challenges for law schools in the near term, but will not result in the closing of any law schools — this strikes me as an unduly optimistic assessment of the situation.

To understand why, I think those in legal education can learn from the experience of those in dental education in the 1980s. In the 1980s, dental school deans, along with provosts and presidents at their host universities, had to deal with the challenge of a significant decline in applicants to dental school.

At least partially in response to federal funding to support dental education, first-year enrollment at the country’s dental schools grew throughout the 1970s to a peak in 1979 of roughly 6,300 across roughly 60 dental schools. … By the mid-1980s, applicants had fallen to 6,300 and matriculants had fallen to 5,000. As of 1985, no dental schools had closed. But by the late 1980s and early 1990s there were fewer than 5000 applicants and barely 4000 first-year students – applicants had declined by more than two-thirds and first-year enrollment had declined by more than one-third from their earlier peaks. …